How Much Does Eating Out Cost in 2027?
Expect roughly $8 to $14 per person at fast food, $12 to $18 at fast casual, $18 to $35 at a casual sit-down restaurant and $75 or more at fine dining, before tax and tip. Those ranges come from one industry guide, not a government survey, so treat them as ballpark figures; the U.S. government does not publish an average meal price by restaurant type.
What the government does publish is how fast prices move. The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts that food-away-from-home prices will rise 2.8 percent in 2027, after about 3.5 percent in 2026. Add a tip of 15 to 20 percent at a sit-down restaurant and a meal costs noticeably more than the menu suggests.
Typical cost per person by restaurant type
There is no official national average meal price. The most specific public breakdown found is a June 7, 2026 guide from DiningRated, which says its ranges are drawn from Toast's State of the Restaurant Industry report and Square restaurant industry benchmarks. It does not say which source backs each tier.
- Fast food / quick service$8 to $14 per person
- Fast casual$12 to $18 per person
- Casual sit-down$18 to $35 per person
- Fine dining$75 to $200+ per person
These are before tax and tip. Drinks, appetizers, alcohol and your city all move the total, so a meal in an expensive metro can sit well above the range. Because the tiers are not tied to a primary survey, use them to compare options, not to budget to the dollar.
How much menu prices have risen
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks restaurant prices in the Consumer Price Index. Its September 2026 release says the food away from home index rose 3.5 percent over the last year, while the food at home index (groceries) rose 1.8 percent. Restaurants are rising faster than grocery stores.
- Full-service meals: up 3.8 percent over the 12 months ending in September 2026.
- Limited-service (fast food and counter) meals: up 3.2 percent over the same period.
- Food away from home overall: 4.0 percent in January 2026, 3.6 percent in April, 3.5 percent in May, 3.4 percent in June and 3.5 percent in September.
In other words, sit-down meals have been getting more expensive a little faster than fast food, and the pace has eased only slightly this year.
What prices are forecast to do in 2027
The USDA Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook, updated 10/23/2026, forecasts that food-away-from-home prices increase 2.8 percent in 2027. That forecast carries a wide prediction interval of 0.7 to 5.0 percent, so the real number could land well above or below it.
For comparison, the same page forecasts 3.5 percent for 2026 and says food-away-from-home prices rose at an average rate of 3.5 percent per year over 2006 to 2025. A 2.8 percent forecast would therefore be a slowdown, not a price cut. Grocery prices are forecast to rise 1.0 percent in 2027, which would widen the gap between cooking at home and eating out. The USDA page does not give separate forecasts for full-service and limited-service restaurants.
Tipping adds to the bill
At a sit-down restaurant, the tip is part of the real price. The Emily Post Institute standard, as cited by DiningRated, is 15 to 20 percent of the pre-tax subtotal, with most diners landing on 18 to 20 percent for solid service.
What people say they do is a little lower. In Pew Research Center's tipping report, published November 9, 2023, 92% of adults who dine at sit-down restaurants said they always or often tip. For an average meal, 57% said they would tip 15% or less (including 2% who would not tip), 12% would tip 18% and a quarter would tip 20% or more. That survey is from 2023, and no newer Pew figure was found.
A simple rule for budgeting: at a casual sit-down restaurant, add the tip plus local sales tax to the menu total, and plan on the 15 to 20 percent range for the tip.
How to keep the cost down
- Mix tiers. Limited-service meals have risen slightly more slowly than full-service ones, according to the BLS figures above.
- Watch add-ons. Drinks and appetizers are where a casual meal drifts toward the top of its range.
- Plan for the tip. Budget the full-service price plus 15 to 20 percent, not the menu price alone.
- Cook some meals at home. Grocery prices are forecast to rise 1.0 percent in 2027 against 2.8 percent for restaurants.
Questions people ask
How much does it cost to eat out per person in 2027?
One industry guide puts it at $8 to $14 for fast food, $12 to $18 for fast casual, $18 to $35 for casual dining and $75 or more for fine dining, before tax and tip. These are estimates, not official averages. Source: DiningRated.
How much will restaurant prices rise in 2027?
The USDA forecasts that food-away-from-home prices rise 2.8 percent in 2027, with a prediction interval of 0.7 to 5.0 percent. Source: USDA ERS Food Price Outlook.
How much have restaurant prices risen this year?
The BLS reports food away from home up 3.5 percent over the 12 months ending in September 2026, with full-service meals up 3.8 percent and limited-service meals up 3.2 percent. Source: BLS CPI.
How much should you tip at a restaurant?
The Emily Post Institute standard is 15 to 20 percent of the pre-tax subtotal. In Pew's survey, 57% said they would tip 15% or less on an average sit-down meal and a quarter would tip 20% or more. Sources: DiningRated, Pew Research Center.
Is eating out getting more expensive than groceries?
Yes. Over the 12 months ending in September 2026 the BLS food away from home index rose 3.5 percent and the food at home index rose 1.8 percent. Source: BLS CPI.
Sources
- BLS: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 · Food away from home, full-service and limited-service meal inflation
- USDA ERS: Food Price Outlook, Summary Findings · 2026 and 2027 food-away-from-home forecasts
- DiningRated: Average Cost of a Restaurant Meal in the US · Per-person price ranges by restaurant type; tipping standard
- Pew Research Center: Tipping Culture in America · How Americans tip at sit-down restaurants
Figures were read from the linked pages on October 28, 2026. Per-person price ranges are one guide's estimates, forecasts can change, and your local prices may differ.
Top photo: Harrison Keely / CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons